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INDF : Raksasa yang sedang kena tonjok

Kali ini saya akan melakukan valuasi terhadap PT Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF). Indofood merupakan raksasa consumer goods. Ditambah lagi dengan keberhasilannya mengakuisisi LSIP menjadikannya semakin membengkak.

Selama krisis finansial yang melanda dunia ini, harga saham Indofood mau tidak mau ikut terpengaruh. Pada bulan Januari 2008 lalu, INDF sempat menyentuh level 3,175 dan akhirnya turun terus hingga saat ini di level 950. Di harga saat ini, sekilas INDF merupakan “bargain” yang menarik. Consumer goods merupakan salah satu industri defensif yang tahan krisis.

Mari kita hitung bersama🙂

indfval

Di harga 950 sepertinya INDF merupakan bargain yang menarik karena walaupun sudah dipasang safety margin 50% ternyata 1,513 pun masih menjadi entry price yang menarik🙂

Disclaimer is on

25 thoughts on “INDF : Raksasa yang sedang kena tonjok

  1. @Bro Nikken
    Itu saya dapatkan dari lap keu beberapa tahun terakhir. Seperti yang saya utarakan sebelumnya. Kalo ada growth lebih dari 15% langsung saya cut menjadi 15% dalam perhitungannya.

    Datanya kira2 seperti ini:

    Year Net Earnings (in million Rp)
    2001 746,300
    2002 802,630
    2003 603,480
    2004 386,920
    2005 124,018
    2006 661,210
    2007 980,357
    2008E 1,509,888

    catatan: Net Earnings sampai dengan Q3 2008 adalah Rp 1,136,164 juta.

    Yang menjadi concern saya adalah net earnings boost dari tahun 2005 – 2008. di mana dari tahun 2002-2005 INDF mengalami penurunan net earnings. Apa yang terjadi pada INDF pada tahun 2005? Seakan-akan pada tahun tsb INDF mengalami titik balik. Ada yg bisa menjelaskan?

  2. @Chris
    Selama yakin fair valuenya masih di atas harganya saat ini, mestinya malah gembira dong soalnya bisa nambah saham🙂

    Tapi memang secara psikologis hal tersebut bisa sangat menganggu karena berada dalam posisi rugi dalam jangka waktu yang cukup panjang.

  3. @parahita

    Mungkin pertanyaan itu yang harus ditanyakan paling pertama. Mengapa perusahaan yg sudah mature spt indofood, earningnya bisa fluktuatif seperti itu? Apa alasannya?

    Tanpa mengetahui latar belakang perubahan earning yang liar tersebut, maka sulit bagi kita untuk mematok earning growth sebesar 15%.

    Selain itu, tanpa mengetahui penjelasan dibalik pergerakan liar earningnya, maka dikhawatirkan validitas nilai Earning yg dipakai dalam formula valuasi jadi berkurang…

  4. 1. competition booo… maybe
    let me give buffett assumption on
    ‘how much we can hurt these guys ?’

    if i give u some capital as much as INDF, how much u can hurt them ?

    mie sedap ? killing their market share

    2. cyclical industri/sector
    it is so obvious that the earning getting down
    on 2003 2005 when oil increased by government effect the sale and cost

    any other reason ? so many laaaa

    means what ?
    means the EARNING POWER is not so strong

    there are some category buffett like to divided:
    – commodity company
    – consumer monopoly
    – etc etc
    now u can think .. which one INDF categorized ?

  5. @manis
    I agree that sometimes earnings can be manipulated. We have to be carefully using earnings as the basis of valuation.

    1. About competition, I don’t care much about Mie Sedap because when I went to “warung indomie”, I still saw the sell Indomie and not Mie Sedap :p

    Why Buffett is still holding Coca Cola although it has a very strong competitor, Pepsi?

    2. Indofood is not a pure commodity nor consumer. It doesn’t have a monopolistic role also. When we talk about Indomie, Indofood is a consumer goods company. When we talk about Lonsum, Indofood is a commodity company.

    What I know is, Indofood has a very strong brand equity and I believe it will be stand still for a long time at its position🙂

  6. 1. –Why Buffett is still holding Coca Cola although it has a very strong competitor, Pepsi?

    not only COKE has strong brand , but pepsi still losing sale numbers OUTSIDE US / INTERNATIONALLY compare to COKE , as well as the growth

    buffett using company which has sale/ revenue come from outside US to hedge against decreasing value of the dollar

    check BRK report ….

    2. — Indofood is not a pure commodity nor consumer. It doesn’t have a monopolistic role also. When we talk about Indomie, Indofood is a consumer goods company. When we talk about Lonsum, Indofood is a commodity company.

    U need to see the number to support your own opinion, check the sector/industry

    —What I know is, Indofood has a very strong brand equity and I believe it will be stand still for a long time at its position🙂

    they do have strong brand, compare to their competitor, do they had better return on capital against their wacc ?

    separate opinion and fact..😀

  7. “U need to see the number to support your own opinion, check the sector/industry ”

    You can’t judge a company is in a sector/industry because BEJ put it in that sector/industry🙂

    You have to read their annual reports, see what their business units are?

    INDF has plantations, consumer goods (Indomie, Sarimi,Supermi), Flour, and many more.

    You are talking about wacc. Now, please tell me. What is the wacc of INDF.

  8. Bro.. coba compare antara INDF dengan UNVR waktu ada “serangan” kemarin UNVR masih lebih kuat dari semua saham bluechips. Why..? kan ga jauh beda sama INDF yang juga menguasai pangsa pasar yang cukup besar dan lama..

    comment please..🙂

  9. @Aji
    INDF baru aja turnaround beberapa tahun belakangan ini sedangkan UNVR relatif lebih stabil kinerjanya. Ya wajar aja kalo INDF lebih gampang goyang.

  10. Pingback: Berburu Perusahaan Yang Solid (Bagian 1) | Pojok Ide Investasi

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